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NOTICIAS/ NEWS INTERNACIONAL published MARCH 05, 2010 CMS Russia and mergermarket present Deal Drivers Russia survey M&A industry cautiously optimistic about 2010 The results of the Deal Drivers Russia survey published today by CMS in cooperation with mergermarket reveal that optimism is returning to the Russian M&A market, albeit slowly. Only 1% of respondents thought that M&A activity will decrease during 2010, as against the 33% who took a pessimistic view at the end of last year. That pessimism reflected a 40% fall in deal volume in 2009 compared to the previous year, while deal sizes declined by 52%. "We are cautiously confident about a slight increase in M&A activity in 2010, based on the results of the survey. In the second half of the year the market will be driven by the privatisation programme and asset disposals by the state banks, which will provide opportunities for domestic and international investors alike," said John Hammond, Managing Partner of CMS Russia. In December 2009, mergermarket interviewed 100 Russian M&A and corporate finance decision makers in order to garner their views on various aspects of the current Russian M&A environment. In addition, mergermarket supplemented this research with deal type and sector analysis from its own exclusive M&A data. The results have now been made available. 2010 outlook: • Deal makers in Russia are overwhelmingly optimistic about the future of Russian M&A, with 81% of those surveyed feeling positive about the prospects of the Russian economy in 2010 compared to 2009. An additional 6% describe themselves as very positive about Russia’s M&A prospects. • Tight credit conditions and the lack of liquidity in the market are viewed as the biggest threats to the growth prospects of Russian firms over the next 12 months. 32% of respondents view lack of liquidity as the key danger, while 30% see it as a major issue. • 58% of those surveyed by mergermarket say that they expect the overall level of M&A activity in Russia to increase over the next 12 months, with a further 3% believing it will increase significantly. • A sizable 48% of respondents expect the TMT sector to witness the most M&A activity in Russia over the next 12 months. Just 8% felt the Construction sector would be the hottest sector • 69% of respondents think that Russian M&A transactions will mostly be worth less than €250m in the next year. • Russian M&A activity over the course of 2010 is most likely to be driven by large corporates disposing of non-core assets according to nearly half of respondents (47%). • An overwhelming majority of respondents feel that, over the course of 2010, an increasing number of cross-border acquirers will be targeting Russian assets (77%). • 88% of respondents believe that the Asia-Pacific region will be most heavily targeted by Russian buyers. • Overseas TMT targets will attract the most attention from Russian outbound acquirers over 2010, say just over half of respondents (51%), while foreign Energy, Mining and Utilities assets also remain attractive for Russian buyers (38%). • 40% of respondents believe that the wider economy’s underlying weakness will pose the biggest challenge for Russian firms looking to finance acquisitions over the next 12 months – a marked shift from similar findings in 2008, when the single largest obstacle facing Russian businesses seeking to finance a deal was the cost of leverage. • More than half of respondents feel that the potential number of corporate defaults and restructurings in Russia over 2010 will remain similar to levels seen in 2009. Last year, the majority (83%) expected the number to increase. This far more optimistic assessment may suggest that the worst of the credit crisis is over. • Private equity deal-making is set to rebound in 2010 say 45% of respondents, while 44% think it will remain the same. • Securing deal finance is highlighted by over 50% of respondents as at least a very serious obstacle facing private equity firms – with exactly one-third regarding this as the most serious issue facing the asset class. • Respondents are split on whether foreign or local private equity firms will dominate the M&A landscape in 2010, polling nearly 50% each; private divestments and public takeovers are likely to be the most frequent sources of private equity acquisitions in Russia next year.

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